|
Overview:
To
say that we are pleased by the performance of
our market calls during this first year
publishing our commentary in this format would
be a mistake.
We are very proud of our performance
during the past year, particularly in light of
how weak the market has been throughout this
period. Our
goal during severe market downturns is
preservation of capital, so we can be no less
than delighted with what we have been able to
achieve.
Sector
Focus:
In
our commentary, our market calls focus on
technology, specifically the NASDAQ, and these
calls can be traded with QQQ, a NASDAQ 100
tracking stock.
We also explicitly cover four
tech-related industries (Biotech, Computer,
Internet, and Semiconductor), as well as 2
non-tech industries (Financials and Oil
Services). The indices representing these sectors, and their
corresponding tradable tracking stocks are as
follows.
|
|
Sector
|
Index
(ticker)
|
Tracking
Stock (ticker)
|
NASDAQ
^IXIC
QQQ
Biotech
^BTK
BBH
Computer
^XCI
None
Financials
XLF
XLF
Internet
HHH
HHH
Oil Services
XLE
XLE
Semiconductor
^SOXX
SMH
Major
Calls:
A
major call is a signal that is explicit.
However, in the first few months of
publishing this commentary, many of the calls
were not explicitly stated up front, and must be
interpreted.
The statement that there is a buy or sell
“coming” would not be interpreted as a call,
but a forewarning of a likely call to come.
On the other hand, “we expect to see
this sector moving up shortly” always would
be. For
a major call, a number of criteria for a buy or
sell signal has to be satisfied according to our
models, or the technical action of the market
must fit a pattern definite enough to give a buy
or sell signal without confirmation from our
models. These calls are likely to last from several weeks to several
months before getting a reversal.
Major calls make up the majority of our
trade volumes and profits.
Minor
Calls:
A
minor call is one in which not all of the
criteria for a buy or sell has been met, but
there has been sufficient bullish or bearish
pressure built up to turn markets in the other
direction, at least briefly. These calls are usually not explicitly stated as a long-term
signal, but implied, such as “market weakness
anticipated” or “while some of our criteria
have not been met, we expect to see the market
moving higher briefly.”
The ensuing market moves from these calls
are seldom prolonged, usually lasting from a few
days to a few weeks, and gains from these calls
are generally limited to less than 5% or 10%.
Price
and Timing:
All
buy and sell calls are assumed to be in force
immediately.
For the purposes of performance tracking,
trades are assumed to be made on the trading day
following the date of the call, at a
price equal to the average of the high and low
on that day.
Commissions are assumed to be negligible
($10 commission on a $10,000 trade is 0.1%) and
are not calculated in the returns.
We should add that while we do practice
trading in both directions in the market, we
have not recorded profits from trading the short
side of the market here. Including the outcomes from trading the short side would more
than triple the gains in most sectors.
Results:
|
|
|
Date
of Initial Call:
|
Current
Date:
|
Performance
to Date:
|
Annualized
Performance:
|
NASDAQ
17-Jul-00
3-Aug-01
29.7%
27.6%
Biotech
31-Jul-00
3-Aug-01
42.1%
40.8%
Computer
17-Jul-00
3-Aug-01 34.3%
31.8%
Financials
12-Sep-00
3-Aug-01
16.8%
18.6%
Internet
11-Jul-00
3-Aug-01 35.8%
32.7%
Oil Services
24-Jul-00
3-Aug-01 34.3%
32.6%
Semiconductor
17-Jul-00
3-Aug-01 114.7%
104.7%
In
order to get a true picture of these returns in
light of the difficult market of the last
year-and-a-half, we also present the following
comparison.
Figures represent the current value of
$10,000 traded based on our calls as described
above vs. the current value of $10,000 invested
on the date of our initial call in a typical
“buy-and-hold” strategy.
|
|
Value
of $10k invested in index at initial call
and held:
|
Value
of $10K traded based on buy-and-sell
calls:
|
|
Percent
Gain (Loss) by trading with calls vs.
buy-and-hold:
|
NASDAQ
$4,910
$12,970
+164%
Biotech
$6,830
$14,210
+108%
Computer
$5,250
$13,430
+156%
Financials
$9,730
$11,680
+20%
Internet
$3,930
$13,580
+246%
Oil Services
$10,480
$13,430
+28%
Semiconductor
$5,230
$21,470
+311%
While
space constraints did not permit us to print
every trade here in this format, records of each
of our trades can be accessed on our website, at
http://www.kinginvestors.com/indcalls/archives/trades.htm.
As
we stated above, the market in the coming years
is likely to favor the investor who takes
advantage of timing, as well as selection, of
his or her investments.
King
Investors is here to provide information
that can be useful in that regard, both for the
aggressive trader, and for the more conservative
investor who only wants to know when not to
be in the market.
We have enjoyed providing such commentary
over the last year and look forward to
continuing to do so for many years to come.
·
Executive
Summary
· 2000
- 2001: Look Back
·
The
Market Moving Forward
· On
Technical Analysis and Trading
· Market
Calls Performance
·
Acknowledgements
|